David Arkow's 2 Wild Baseball Theories

Theory 1- Derek Jeter Never Fails

Everyone knows Derek Jeter is a great baseball player and one of the greatest Yankees of all time. His talent is something that can overlooked by some, but never by Yankee fans. There isn't much that wows you about his game, except that he goes about his business doing the same things day in and day out and does it with incredible success. For the last 15 years he has played in almost every game, playing at shortstop and making some great defensive plays, and he just straight up gets hits. He will end up over 3000 on his career and likely in the Hall of Fame. But what makes Jeter a 4 time world series winner and the superstar for the Yankees dynasty in the 90s and 2000s, is his ability to get the clutch hit. When I hear the phrase "clutch performer", I immediately look to Jeter. The guy has never shied away from a big moment, whether that be regular season, playoffs, extra innings, or just when guys are on base. The man just gets the job done. For the last 4 years (that's as far back as I'm willing to check stats for), Jeter has batted over .300 with runners in scoring position (RISP) and RISP and 2 outs in each year. This includes high marks of .418 and .366. His playoff batting average is .309 and he's had years in the playoffs of .500 and .375, literally putting the team on his back. Clearly the more difficult the situation the better Jeter performs.

But let's be honest, we all know this. So what is this cockamamie theory all about, i'll tell you. Obviously Jeter has earned the respect of the fans and will never get booed, but he also never lends himself to getting booed. There is hardly ever a batting situation where Jeter is the scapegoat. The double plays are the only times Jeter puts an immediate stop to an inning, otherwise he is fail proof. What I mean is that whenever Jeter comes up with RISP and 2 outs, as stated earlier, he comes through. When he comes up with RISP and 1 or no one out, he can be successful but sometimes makes out (his RISP avg is less than his RISP w/ 2 outs). In these situations, I always make a note to anyone watching around me and I'll say something like, "Watch dude, the next guy up will get a hit and get Jeter's back." What do I mean by this? When the inning is over the Yankees will have scored runs anyways and no one will look at DJ for having failed earlier in the innning. If Jeter comes up with Cabrera on 2nd and no one out and he strikes out, Damon or Teixeira or whoever are the next two to follow, will get a single and make sure no one remembers Jeter not advancing the runner at least. Had there been 2 outs, Jeter would realize that he has no one else to help him out and he MUST come through and therefore does. On some level Jeter has the ability to will a hit and does when it is needed. So I challenge you to find a time where you see Jeter fail and the players behind him do as well, because it does not happen often.

Theory 2- Relief Pitching

Theory 1 was my joking love for Jeter and his lack of failures, but this theory on relief pitching is practical and should be taken much more seriously. This theory I have shared with my dad many times and he generally agrees is something more managers should consider. When the game is on the line in a pressure situation, who do you want pitching for your team, Mariano Rivera or Alfredo Aceves, Rivera or Phil Coke. Let me paint a picture to make my point clearer. Let's say in the 7th inning, the Yankees have a 2-1 lead and there are runners on first and second and nobody out. The starting pitcher AJ Burnett leaves the game and it's Girardi's turn to call on anybody he wants from the pen. He calls on Brian Bruney. Bruney allows the first man up to smack a 2-run double and the Yankees fall behind and lose 3-2. (This is a made up situation keep in mind). Now looking back we realized that Bruney was a mistake, but even had he succeeded, this was a mistake. The game is to be won/lost in this situation. The reason Girardi did not use Rivera was because he wanted to save him so he could do just that in the 9th. But in most situations Rivera will come up facing the 7-8-9 hitters in the 9th with no jam. That's a cake walk and should be for any pitcher. However the 7th inning is not easy and that's where you NEED Rivera and not Bruney. According to the Elias Sports Bureau and other sports statistics, with a 3 run lead in the 9th, the ace closer has a 99% success rate, whereas any other reliever has a 98% success rate. This is an insignificant drop, but in that 7th inning I bet Mariano succeeds 8/10 but Bruney only 5/10. This is a much more significant drop. Why save Rivera for the 9th that may never happen if your other guys fail? Why wait to use the best player on your relief staff when the game is to be saved now. The only reason we wait and pray that our decent relievers can save it for Rivera, is because the rules almost dictate it that way. We have grown accustomed to the best player being the closer, the last guy to face the most pressured 9th inning. These are the guys that rack up the stats and get the save and make the most money. We can't deny them the opportunity to "save" the game. Look at K-rod, the guy is making $37 million over the next 3 years with the Mets, because he saved 62 games last year. He was definitely great last year, but he had better seasons prior that and there were other guys who were better last year, just not given 65 opportunities. But what earned him the money was not his 2.4 era but his 62 saves. So Mike Scoiscia can't just take away save opps for him or it would cost him money, but then again a manager's job is to win the game.