Football Sunday Continues...

It's Sunday January 23rd, you know what that means? It means it's the last Sunday of the year where we get at least two football games in one day, before the climax of the season and then the long dreaded off-season. Unless you've been living under a rock, this year we have the Blitzburg Steelers and the NY J-E-T-S in the AFC and the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears. For the first time in a long time, longer than I can remembers, we have 4 great teams that are all capable of being Superbowl champs just depends on how they perform these final few weeks. we also have two 6 seeds, which means we may have the first #6 vs #6. But enough of this preliminary set up Bull-Shit, let's get down to the meat and discuss the previous few weeks of football and what we expect to see today. First let's breakdown each team so far.

NY Jets
The Jets have surprised nobody as they themselves have been self declared Superbowl champs since training camp and during the show "Hardknocks". They had some bumps during the regular season but it appears as though they play their best football during the playoffs, leading many to believe that they are going to win the Superbowl. Their boisterous coach Rex Ryan has the D playing at an enormously high level and they now have beaten Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in back to back weeks. Mark Sanchez is evolving before our eyes and the drive/hustle/determination/will, whatever you want to call it, is arguably the highest of the playoff teams.

Last week the Jets shocked the world, beating the NE Patriots, the evil empire of football, in Foxborough 28-21. They beat Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in their home, something very few teams can say they've done. At first after watching the game I thought, did the patriots lose or did the jets win? The answer is really, both. The Patriots hardly looked like the Pats. They ran it too much and didn't rely on Brady until it was too late. They got beat in the trenches. They got out coached and made far too many bad judgement calls, poor clock management, bad 3rd and 4th down decision making. They also looked like a young and inexperienced defense that they were supposed to be. The D was wildly above expectations leading them to 14-2 but in the final game of their season, fell to a sub par level. However the Jets did play a fantastic game. They stuffed the run, and dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. They blitzed Brady and had a lot of sacks as well as pressure in his face. They made him look off-balanced, something hardly anybody in the league has done. Sanchez made some bad throws, but overall played a solid game. The run game was good and then great as the Pats D got tired. And the coverage....Oh my goodness was the Jet coverage unbelievable. They rushed 3 sometimes and got no pressure, giving Brady 10 seconds at times and still he had nowhere to go. Cromartie, Revis, Wilson, and the rest of their D backs played some inspired football. If they play this game again against the Steelers they will win.

Keys for the Jets--They need to not turn it over. Their D is good enough to keep them in the game, don't throw a costly pick and don't fumble and they'll be in it to win it in the 4th quarter. They also need to bring Roethlisberger down when they have the chance. You cannot let him escape a sack and throw for a first down. That's what he wants to do and he will if you let him, he's 245 pounds so it's no easy task bringing his ass down, but JT, Ellis, Pace, Price, Devito, get on that boys. The last key for me is the ability to stay out of long 3rd downs. When you run on first down you NEED to get 3-4 yards. When you throw on first or second down, you must at least complete the pass for positive gain or throw it away when it could lead to a sack. 3rd and 8 or even more could be disastrous. The Steelers love to bring pressure, they have a very opportunistic defense, and they have Troy P. So if you get in long yardage situations it can lead to sacks, fumbles, and picks, which they always return. Field position is essential in big games, so sacks on 3rd downs are bad news and can fire up a crowd. Jets need to remember not to turn it over, shorten the field when necessary (run on 2nd and 12 to make it more manageable on 3rd), and look out for Troy Polamalu.

The Chicago Bears
The Bears came into the playoffs like the luckiest team on Earth that nobody believed would be successful. They won 11 games and got the 2 seed somehow. They got a lucky win week 1 vs Detroit, the benefit of an easy schedule (Minnesota stunk this year, Dallas as well, Carolina, the NFC West). Their tough wins included Philly, GB 1/2, and the Jets. Only 3/11 wins were vs above ..500 teams. Their losses included NE, NYG, GB, Washington, and Seattle. so of their 5 games in 16 against good teams, they went 2-3, not sure that's an elite team. They won their first playoff game against Seattle, a, 8-9 team, another fortunate event. They also saw the #1 seed lose and so have earned themselves a home game, another lucky break. The only not lucky thing, they get the Green Bay Packers. Their biggest rival, in their biggest game, in their freezing cold home town Soldier Field.

Their defense is looking like the elite unit that got them to the Superbowl just 4 years ago. Their offense with Mike Martz coordinating is looking pretty good. Cutler is always a question mark, but we know he has the talent. Matt Forte makes some nice plays, and their receivers are starting to grow up. Hester, Olsen, Bennett, and Know make an interesting bunch. They also have the best special teams guy in NFL history, Devin Hester, and don't forget Danieal Manning (watch him make a big play today either as SS or as KR). To win today the Bears will need some big plays from their special teams, their D to play like a tough hard nosed unit. Urlacher, Briggs, Idonije, Peppers, Tinioshomoa, Harris, Peanut Tillman, etc, they have the guys to do it. They will also need Cutler to hang onto the ball. No costly turnovers, and don't let the one or maybe two turnovers lead to points. The Packers love to go for the strip and love to make big plays on D, the Bears cannot let that happen. Cutler has to be, as Ron Jaworski loves to say, judicious with the football and 2+ turnovers would be a dagger.

I expect Forte to be leaned on heavily, expect 20 carries and 5-7 catches for the 3rd year man out of Tulane. His running style works for the Bears today, he's powerful and quick, doesn't fumble, can make big plays in the passing game, and wears you out as the game progresses. If the Bears want to win, they'll need to ride Forte and keep Rodgers off the field. They also will have to have a big game from Peppers or some other guy free rushing. Rodgers avoids the rush so well and makes so many plays on the roll and out of the pocket. When he runs out, they must get him down and get the ball out. A strip sack or a hit forcing an interception is crucial. If the Packers don't turn it over and the sacks are down, they will not be stopped.

Green Bay Packers
This team is easily the most intriguing of the playoff teams. The Packers were my Superbowl favorite entering the season but because of ENORMOUS injuries and a really rough schedule, they almost missed out. But they got hot at the right time and booted the Giants from the playoffs by beating NYG and the Bears in the final two weeks. They then followed that up with wins against Philly and Atlanta on the road. Arguably the best two teams in the NFC and they did it on the road.

Green Bay needs their D to keep pressure on Cutler and make him uncomfortable, stay stout against the run and force those turnovers they love so much. On offense, don't think you can run, cause you can't. They are not a running team, so don't do what you don't do. Let Rodgers drop back and be the beast he is. The Bears were 9th against the run and 21st against the pass. Let it be an aerial assault. Rodgers is over 100 passer rating in cold weather and beats Chicago all the time. Green Bay should be fine.


Hopefully its a fun football sunday!

Green bay 28-13
Pittsburgh 23-17