Wednesday, July 29, 2009

David Arkow's 2 Wild Baseball Theories

Theory 1- Derek Jeter Never Fails

Everyone knows Derek Jeter is a great baseball player and one of the greatest Yankees of all time. His talent is something that can overlooked by some, but never by Yankee fans. There isn't much that wows you about his game, except that he goes about his business doing the same things day in and day out and does it with incredible success. For the last 15 years he has played in almost every game, playing at shortstop and making some great defensive plays, and he just straight up gets hits. He will end up over 3000 on his career and likely in the Hall of Fame. But what makes Jeter a 4 time world series winner and the superstar for the Yankees dynasty in the 90s and 2000s, is his ability to get the clutch hit. When I hear the phrase "clutch performer", I immediately look to Jeter. The guy has never shied away from a big moment, whether that be regular season, playoffs, extra innings, or just when guys are on base. The man just gets the job done. For the last 4 years (that's as far back as I'm willing to check stats for), Jeter has batted over .300 with runners in scoring position (RISP) and RISP and 2 outs in each year. This includes high marks of .418 and .366. His playoff batting average is .309 and he's had years in the playoffs of .500 and .375, literally putting the team on his back. Clearly the more difficult the situation the better Jeter performs.

But let's be honest, we all know this. So what is this cockamamie theory all about, i'll tell you. Obviously Jeter has earned the respect of the fans and will never get booed, but he also never lends himself to getting booed. There is hardly ever a batting situation where Jeter is the scapegoat. The double plays are the only times Jeter puts an immediate stop to an inning, otherwise he is fail proof. What I mean is that whenever Jeter comes up with RISP and 2 outs, as stated earlier, he comes through. When he comes up with RISP and 1 or no one out, he can be successful but sometimes makes out (his RISP avg is less than his RISP w/ 2 outs). In these situations, I always make a note to anyone watching around me and I'll say something like, "Watch dude, the next guy up will get a hit and get Jeter's back." What do I mean by this? When the inning is over the Yankees will have scored runs anyways and no one will look at DJ for having failed earlier in the innning. If Jeter comes up with Cabrera on 2nd and no one out and he strikes out, Damon or Teixeira or whoever are the next two to follow, will get a single and make sure no one remembers Jeter not advancing the runner at least. Had there been 2 outs, Jeter would realize that he has no one else to help him out and he MUST come through and therefore does. On some level Jeter has the ability to will a hit and does when it is needed. So I challenge you to find a time where you see Jeter fail and the players behind him do as well, because it does not happen often.

Theory 2- Relief Pitching

Theory 1 was my joking love for Jeter and his lack of failures, but this theory on relief pitching is practical and should be taken much more seriously. This theory I have shared with my dad many times and he generally agrees is something more managers should consider. When the game is on the line in a pressure situation, who do you want pitching for your team, Mariano Rivera or Alfredo Aceves, Rivera or Phil Coke. Let me paint a picture to make my point clearer. Let's say in the 7th inning, the Yankees have a 2-1 lead and there are runners on first and second and nobody out. The starting pitcher AJ Burnett leaves the game and it's Girardi's turn to call on anybody he wants from the pen. He calls on Brian Bruney. Bruney allows the first man up to smack a 2-run double and the Yankees fall behind and lose 3-2. (This is a made up situation keep in mind). Now looking back we realized that Bruney was a mistake, but even had he succeeded, this was a mistake. The game is to be won/lost in this situation. The reason Girardi did not use Rivera was because he wanted to save him so he could do just that in the 9th. But in most situations Rivera will come up facing the 7-8-9 hitters in the 9th with no jam. That's a cake walk and should be for any pitcher. However the 7th inning is not easy and that's where you NEED Rivera and not Bruney. According to the Elias Sports Bureau and other sports statistics, with a 3 run lead in the 9th, the ace closer has a 99% success rate, whereas any other reliever has a 98% success rate. This is an insignificant drop, but in that 7th inning I bet Mariano succeeds 8/10 but Bruney only 5/10. This is a much more significant drop. Why save Rivera for the 9th that may never happen if your other guys fail? Why wait to use the best player on your relief staff when the game is to be saved now. The only reason we wait and pray that our decent relievers can save it for Rivera, is because the rules almost dictate it that way. We have grown accustomed to the best player being the closer, the last guy to face the most pressured 9th inning. These are the guys that rack up the stats and get the save and make the most money. We can't deny them the opportunity to "save" the game. Look at K-rod, the guy is making $37 million over the next 3 years with the Mets, because he saved 62 games last year. He was definitely great last year, but he had better seasons prior that and there were other guys who were better last year, just not given 65 opportunities. But what earned him the money was not his 2.4 era but his 62 saves. So Mike Scoiscia can't just take away save opps for him or it would cost him money, but then again a manager's job is to win the game.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Should the Yankees get Roy Halladay?

That is the million dollar question, should the Yankees pursue the most sought after player in baseball. A player who at 32 years old is playing his best baseball. A player who has already won a cy young, could line up a second after this year, and is surely to be a hall of famer when his illustrious career comes to a close. This player is available and has been for the last 3 weeks. JP Ricciardi, the Blue Jays General Manager, put Halladay on the block when it appeared that the Blue Jays were eliminated from contention. A lot of teams seem interested in Halladay (who wouldn't be), but Ricciardi is asking for an enormous amount for Roy. The Phillies appeared to be the favorite but it seems as though the Jays and Phillies have hit a snag and neither team is willing to budge. Halladay is under contract through the end of 2010, so any team that trades for him has to take on about 6 million for this year and another 15 for next year. So back to the original question, should the Yankees trade for Halladay, and furthermore will they?

I think as fantastic as Roy Halladay is, the Yankees should not get him. I've been hearing all week about how this makes the Yankees an instant World Series favorite for 2 years, and when you have a chance at a Hall of Fame pitcher, you shouldn't let a few minor leaguers stand in the way. I understand this point of view, but I have to respectfully disagree. The reported oasking price from the Jays was Hughes/Joba, Austin Jackson, and Jesus Montero. At this point I no longer consider Hughes/Joba young talent. These are impact players now and are crucial to the Yankees run this season. I also know that Montero and Jackson may not pan out, but it's nice saving the farm for the future and in case of injury.

The Yankees also have a track record of going out and getting the best pitchers on the market who are on the decline of their career and they don't pan out. Randy Johnson, Kevin Brown, Carl Pavano, Roger Clemens (stint 2), and Jaret Wright. All these players struggled with the Yankees and were a waste of money. If you look at what it took for the Yankees to win 4 World Series titles in 5 years, it was the right combination of young talent and good major league free agents. Not one player on that roster was a stud brought in from another team. It was Posada, Jeter, Pettitte, Bernie, and Mariano, all home grown talent. It was also, O'neill, Martinez, Brosius, Wells, Cone, and El Duque, all good major league players but no one was a real stud. It took chemistry and it took the right guys stepping up at the right time.

This year the Yankees are 2nd in MLB with a 61-38 record, a team that is fun to watch and playing great baseball. Why fix what's not broken? Why go and get a pitcher who could impact this team greatly but also take away the heart and soul of this team? Why remove the youth which provides the spark, the energy, and the hustle from a team that needs no help? I think doing this move says "we can't win with the current team", which is an insult and a lie. This team right now is better than Boston and LAA and so long as they dont get Halladay, it's an uneccessary move. I think the option to get Johan was there a few years ago and Cashman passed because he wanted to save the young talent. That is why they signed Burnett and CC to improve the pitching without having to give up young players. The payroll is almost never an issue with the Yankees but paying the luxury tax would increase the cost of getting Halladay, from 21 million to around 32 million. I know some people seem to think when you are already paying 200 million, what's another 20 a year. My answer to that is plain and simple, if money isn't an issue and you are willing to do anything to win, why wouldn't you sign every free agent out there and nearly guarantee the World Series title? Get Manny and Abreu in the offseason in there instead of Melky and Swisher. Throw money at every FA and lock em up. This at least saves you prospects. But clearly this is unreasonable as the Yankees want to win with their players and they want to win in an economical manor. It's not like you are in trouble at this point in the season and to stay competitive you need 1 bat or 1 starter. This is a team playing out of its mind baseball and doesn't need Halladay to put the rest of the league in a choke hold.

Monday, July 27, 2009

Homestand Comes to a Close, Looking Forward

The Yankees ended their 10 game home stand at 9-1. They took themselves from 3 games out of the division lead to 2.5 games ahead in the division. During a stretch where Boston lost the ability to score runs and win games, the Yankees were showing the rest of baseball that this year they are for real. The Yankees can almost never be counted out of a game. They have an uncanny ability to score runs on the opposing team's bullpen. The Yankees should have emerged 10-0 during this stretch, but lost on Saturday to Oakland when the bullpen collapsed in relief of Andy Pettitte. More specifically, Alfredo Aceves, who had been pitching great, came into a tie game with bases loaded and 1 out. He got Mark Ellis to pop out but then surrendered 4 straight hits and the lead ballooned to 6-1. Since it's the Yankees we are talking about, they scored some runs late off a pair of Home Runs, but still lost 6-4. Had that inning been nuetralized a little bit sooner, the defecit would have been more manageable. Despite that blunder the bullpen has overall done a great job. Mariano clearly the ace of the staff, but Phil Hughes is coming into his own as well as a dominant 7th and 8th inning guy. If Bruney can get straight, along with Coke and Aceves and the Yankees add Demaso Marte soon, that bullpen looks more like a strength than the weakness it was at the start of the season.

Despite playing some outrageous baseball, concerns are beginning to airse in Yankee world. They now have to head to Tampa for a series against the Rays. A much more legitimate team than Baltimore or Oakland, and a team that always plays the Yankees tough, especially in their building. This series and the next few will also be played without Brett Gardner. The little speedster broke his thumb on Saturday sliding into second, and will miss the next month. Although he is not part of the elite core of the team, his value to the team has shown and he matters greatly. He adds another dimension the Yankees game that they haven't really ever relied on, speed. Gardner plays great defense and can literally manufacture runs, something crucial to do against good ball clubs. His injury leaves more playing time for Melky Cabrera, Nick Swisher, and Eric Hinske, which should be able to pick up the slack, but the question is whether or not the Yankees ought to do something about this as the trade deadline approaches. There are a few options for the Yankees.

Option 1- Do nothing
This option is the do nothing approach. This option is, we have good replacement guys and a deep bench so we should not lose much. Just keep plugging away and hang in there and this team is too good to fall apart without one little dude. It's ballsy, but the Yankees do still have enough to continue to win most of their games. Although they play Boston at home following the next 3 road series. It would be nice to take at least 2/4 games in that series and losing Gardner does hurt.

Option 2- Get someone
The option here is to go out and get someone you know will impact your ball club. The Yankees have 4 days until the trade deadline, they could go out and get a bat or even get a pitcher. I know you lose Gardner so why get a pitcher, but anything to help the team to stay on division winning target. I doubt the Yankees get Halladay, but Cliff Lee and Jarrod Washburn are names being thrown around, someone might be interested in selling and the Yankees might just get someone, even if it's a small signing like a Hinske, it could be beneficial.

Option 3- Ajax or Action Jackson
This happens to be my favorite option, and that is to bring up young talented OF, Austin Jackson. Jackson is doing well in the minors, batting over 300 with lots of steals and brings great defense. He is a young future star and the number one player in the farm system. Bringing him up now has its risks, it could stunt his growth not playing everyday, and he could lose confidence if he doesn't play well. Also if he struggles it will hurt his value as a player to possibly be traded. However if he plays well, he could help this team greatly and could cemente his legacy as a Yankee future star and increase his value. Clearly there is risk and there is worry, when isn't there, but if he is as good as they say, he shouldn't struggle more than natural beginning woes. I expect some jitters and some bad strikeouts, but I also expect some good hits and steals and some good defensive plays. The Yankees made this move with Jeter and Cano in the past and we all know how that worked out, time to make the move Cashman. Get this real deal young gun into the lineup and let's win now.

Friday, July 24, 2009

Going Streaking

A cold and rainy night in the Bronx signaled, it was time to go streaking, in a manor of speaking. The Yankees reached 7 games on their post all star break win streak. The win came at 12:50 am in the Bronx as the Yankees beat the Oakland As 6-3. The game was delayed by over 2 and a half hours thanks to showers. When the game finally started, it was CC Sabathia for the Yankees and NJ native Vin Mazarro for the As. Sabathia ran into trouble in the early innings, but as CC generally does, he settled down and managed to finish 7 strong innings of 3 run ball. Mazzaro was quite the opposite, he started off retiring the first 6 batters, 4 on strikeouts. He (fortunately for the Yankees) fell apart in the 4th when Damon led off with a single. Mazzaro then fell behind 3-0 to Teixeira, who was then given the green light and crushed the 3-0 pitch into the middle deck in right field. Arod followed with a walk, then stole second and was brought in by Posada on a double to the gap. Hinske singled Jorge home, and all of a sudden the Yankees were ahead 4-3. They scored 2 more in the 5th inning knocking out Mazzaro and claiming the 6-3 lead which would remain the same for the rest of the game.

CC seemed to get stronger as the game wore on and his pitches were hitting 95 even in the 7th when his pitch count was over 100. Hughes relieved CC and pitched a scoreless 8th and 9th for his first save. Once again it seemed like the Yankees did just enough to get the win and never really looked uncomfortable out there. Despite the game starting at 10 pm and the Yankees falling behind 3-0, the players seemed to know the comeback was inevitable.

"We expect to win every night." Mark Teixeira said.

The players seem to be playing with an extra confidence, realizing that they are capable of winning any game and every game. The Yankees have now won all 7 games since the all star break and managed to go from 3 behind the Red Sox for the division, to 2 1/2 games ahead for the division lead. As Teixeira said, the players take the field with a certain swagger, knowing the late scoring will come and the starting pitching and bull pen has been lights out.

"The starting pitching has been incredible." Teixeira added.

The Yankees look like the team from the 90's, having fun unafraid to score late, and relying on humble heroes like Brett Gardner, Eric Hinske, Melky Cabrera, Sergio Mitre, Phil Hughes, among others. These guys and others are contributing to the streak and may be flying under the radar. The Yankees play 3 more vs Oakland this weekend and Joba takes the mound tonight at 7 pm as the Yankees look to increase their lead on the division and win their 8th in a row.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Power Sergio

Last night former Marlin starter, Sergio Mitre took the mound on a cold, wet night in the Bronx. Mitre's last start in the majors coming back in 2007, no one knew what to expect. Well he sure didn't dazzle anyone with his 5 2/3 innings of 4 run ball, but he did give the Yankees a good chance to win the game and they did just that. Mitre got the win in a 6-4 game as the Yankees topped the Orioles despite a 30 minute rain delay. Mitre ran into a considerable amount of jams throughout the course of the game, but managed to minimize the damage and allowed the Yankee bats to propel the team to 5 straight victories.

The offense was lead by Alex Rodriguez and Robinson Cano. Rodriguez was hit by a pitch, stole second, and scored on a pair of fly balls in the second inning. In the 4th he came up with bases loaded and drilled a hard hit ball right by the shortstop Izturis for a 2 run go ahead single. Later in the game Cano came up and hit a rocket into the right field bleachers for a 2-run HR putting the Yankees ahead for good.

Last night's win combined with Boston's 4-2 loss, put the Yankees in sole possession of first place in the American league east. This is the first time the Yankees have been in possession of first this late in the year since October of 2006. The Yankee offense hasn't been getting overwhelming amounts of hits, but are finding ways to squeek out just enough runs to win the game. The bullpen last night, just like the previous 4 games, looked phenominal. Alfredo Aceves or Ace, pitched 1 1/3 innings, followed by Coke for an inning, and then of course Mariano to close it down. Coke got Luke Scott to hit a sharp line drive right to Teixeira who stepped on the bag for a double play, doubling off Markakis to end the 8th. Teixeira's defense has been stellar all season and was on display again last night. Yankees will go for the sweep and 6 wins in a row with AJ Burnett vs Berken on Wednesday in an afternoon game in the Bronx.

Monday, July 20, 2009

Yankees winning in spite of the offense?

It took only 2 hours and 40 minutes for the Yankees to see Hideki Matsui get pied in the face by AJ Burnett. In case you didn't know, that's the new signature Yankee sentiment given to the player who delivers the game winning hit. Tonight that was Hit-Deki Matsui, who crushed a 2-2 Jim Johnson pitch into the night in the bottom of the 9th. Matsui's home run came with 1 out and no one on in the 9th inning in a 1-1 ball game. Despite hitting the 9th game winning hit of the season and 27th come from behind came, the story of the game was the pitching and the defense.

Andy Pettitte started for the Yankees, meanwhile questions surround him about whether he's slowing down or will fall apart in the second half just like last year. Pettitte temporarily answered those critics with a dominant pitching performance, 7 1/3 innings of 1 run ball and not to mention a season high 8 K's. Pettitte seemed to be mowing down batters and never looked uncomfortable. Any time he reached any sort of jam, he made all the pitches he needed to get out of the situation unscathed. Even after Pettitte left the game, the Yankees relief pitcher Phil Coke was able to get out of a 2nd and 3rd 1 out jam left on by andy Pettitte. The batter Nick Markakis smoked a ground ball to Teixeira, who fielded it cleanly and fired home. Molina applied the tag and Izturis was out at home. Next batter Adam Jones got to see only 1 pitch that inning as the ball was a wild one and got away from Molina. Molina raced down to the ball, slid and threw almost simultaneously to Coke who tagged Roberts for the final out in the inning. Twice the Orioles failed to score that inning with a man on third. All game the Yankees got big outs in big situations, including numerous double plays and great defensive plays.

For the third game in a row the Yankees won by a score of 2-1, showing they are capable of winning games on the strength of their starters and bullpen. The offense came up with some clutch hits when it needed (all 3 games taking the lead late in the game) and of the 6 runs, 5 of them coming on 5 solo HRs- Hinske, Teixeira, Matsui, and Arod twice. But overall the offense has been a bit sluggish out of the gate in the second half. The reason this hasn't been mentioned? The Yankees are 4-0. When the team wins the questions and the concerns will of course disappear.

But this article isn't meant to point out the offensive struggles, but more importantly to highlight the incredible pitching and defense that has propelled this 4 game win streak. In the 4 games since the All-Star break, the Yankees have held their opponents to a total of 6 runs. 6 runs on 26 hits in 36 innings. The starters for the Yankees had quality starts (at least 6 innings of 3 ER or less) in every one of the 4 games and the bullpen only gave up 1 run on the Marcus Thames solo homer off of Aceves on Saturday. The defense has been highlighted by the spectacular work of Mark Teixeira. Mark showed why he deserved the 8 yr 160+ million dollar contract he offered the Yankees in the offseason. He hit home runs in both Friday and Sunday and then came up with outrageous defensive plays in all the games. Molina also showed why he is on the 25 man roster and not Cervelli, saving the Yankees from giving up a run in the 8th. Overall it's been taking a total team effort on every front to win three straight games while only scoring 2 runs in each. The Yankees go for 5 in a row tomorrow and we'll see if they can continue their pitching dominance with Sergio Mitre on the mound.

Different Joba?

Yesterday's 2-1 win over Detroit marked big strides for starting pitcher Joba Chamberlain. It was the longest outing for Joba since June 1st and the first time he had given up less than 2 runs in a game since his last start vs Detroit on April 29th. Joba overcame early struggles and settled down to win his 5th game of the year, his first win since June 24th against Atlanta. Joba seemed to be in much better command of his fastball, hitting upper 90's with consistency, and seemed to be increasing as the game went on. Joba has a tendency of nibbling around the plate and not being able to put guys away, but yesterday he only had 3 walks and struck out 8 batters. His 8 strikeouts was the second most he has recorded this season, showing he came with a different approach to challenge hitters. This helped keep his pitch count low and allowed him to go 6 2/3 innings as well.

The most important thing I saw from Joba yesterday was how he picked up his teammates. In his last 2 starts Joba gave up unearned runs because he couldn't get out of jams created by his teammates errors. More specifically his start on July 5th vs Toronto, while leading 5-3 with 1 out in the 4th inning and a man on first, Cody Ransom made an error on a possible double play ball, setting up first and second with 1 out. Joba could have cracked down and gotten out of the situation, but it ballooned and he ended up giving up a double, single, and home run for a total of 5 runs. This goes down in the stats as 3 er and 8 runs, so Joba's era remains in tact, but this is a situation where you need to bear down and help your teammate out. In the last few outings Joba failed to do this and let his game get out of control. Yesterday howevere, different story. Joba faced Granderson with 1 out and no one on in the 6th and Granderson lined a pitch to Nick Swisher. It was a well hit ball and certainly should have been a hit, but Swisher tried to play the ball on a short hop and let it get right by him after doing an embarassing leap up. Granderson ended up on third as the go ahead run, and still only 1 out. Joba managed to get out of the inning unscathed thanks to a 97 mph fastball on a 3-2 pitch to Marcus Thames that blew right by him. After recording the out, Joba did his signature celebration with fist pumps and a voilent shake. It was good to see him help out his teammates and not let a small mistake blow up. It was also refreshing to see Joba excited and happy on the mound for the first time in a while. On top of that Joba wasn't afraid to go after the hitter on a 3-2 pitch and dialed it up to 97! Overall many good signs from Joba yesterday and if he can continue this, a good 1-2-3 in the rotation.

Friday, July 17, 2009

Game 7/17 vs Detroit

Tonight's Yankee game was a very nice way to open up the second half of the season. A nice 5-3 win over the Detroit Tigers. AJ Burnett really impressed me tonight, not because he had dominating stuff tonight, but because he did not have his best stuff tonight and still managed to keep the Yankees in the game. He went 6 innings 3 earned runs off of 6 hits and 5 walks and a hit by pitch. Thats a pretty high WHIP (walks and hits in innings pitched), but a quality start nonetheless.

The Yankee bats were quiet in the beginning off rookie starter Lou french, but awoke late off of Joel Zumaya. It was capped off by a mammoth 3-run HR into the 2nd deck in left by Mark Teixeira. After forty minute rain delay in the middle of the 8th inning, the game resumed to see Rivera get the final outs and close down the 5-3 win. It was a typical Yankee victory, but one that showed some good signs.

First the Yankees came from behind just like they always do, but a good sign of a good team. Being able to beat a playoff contender late in the game, good work NYY. Second impressive thing was the Yankee pitching. Burnett as I mentioned earlier being able to put a solid outing together despite his hardships. Also the bullpen, 3 scoreless innings to nail down the W. Most importantly I saw a lot from Joe Girardi tonight. Sometimes the best decision is to stop thinking about lefty righty matchups or how this pitcher does vs this hitter, blah blah blah. The best thing sometimes is the hot hand and the best player, straight up. I really liked that after a 20 pitch 7th innings, Girardi brought Hughes out for the 8th inning as well. He brought his total to 40 for the game, but he struck out all 6 batters he faced and looked phenominal. I was happy that he trusted Hughes and was thinking about the W and not about anything else. Hughes has been dominant lately and I was glad he just let the man do his job. Hughes-Rivera is an unbeatable combo, rivaling the Joba-Rivera duo in late 2007.

Overall a good Yankee win and in typical fashion, my only qualm with the whole game was the decision to send Posada home earlier in the game when Melky hit a single with 2 out and runners at first and second. I understand that with 2 outs you want to be agressive, but with Jeter on deck, I want him up with runners in scoring position. Not to mention that the outfielder caught the ball when Posada was just hitting 3rd base. He is a slow runner and he was out by 567 miles. O well, a small aspect of the game, just something that would have been a major issue had the team lost 3-2. Jeter is batting over 400 with RISP and 2 outs, so you might want to know who's on deck and who's on the base paths (slow ass Jorge) next time that situation arises.

Thursday, July 16, 2009

2nd Half

The 2nd half of the MLB season begins tonight and for the Yankees it begins tomorrow with a 3 game series against the AL central leading Detroit Tigers. Looking forward it's easy to predict that the Yankees will make the playoffs. Since the season began I have been saying this team is destined for bigger and better things, but at this point I have some concerns. For normal team standards, this team is way above average and will be rather successful. Unfortunately with the steinbrenners running the franchise and being in New York and being the most successful sports franchise in history, the expectations are always high. This team spends roughly $200 million on pay roll and as a result should have a top tier team. Bringing in CC, Burnett, and Teixeira in an offseason is beyond excessive and just lets you know at what level the Yankees are at. Accepting an 89 win playoff-less season like last yr, is out of the question. The Yankees refuse to let Boston and Tampa take control of the division and they are trying to position themselves for a title run. It all looked promising following the return of Alex Rodriguez. The staff was doing well, the bullpen rejuvinated with the addition of Phil Hughes, and the offense running on all cylinders. In the last week though, things got a little dicey. A 3 game sweep at the helm of the Angels was enough to derail the success train. Right now the rotation includes CC and Burnett as the 1-2, a very good 1-2 punch. The 3-4 is Joba and Pettitte (in whichever order you prefer) and currently neither is playing at a level worthy of a 3rd of 4rth starter. The 5th starting spot is Mitre's for right now until Wang can get back to 100%. If you had a quality 3rd starter, you would not mind pettitte and Joba struggling because as 4th and 5th starters, this is expected. But as the 3-4 guys, we expect and need more! The second half of the season should be no different than the first and I expect 93-95 wins and a wild card spot behind the Sox. This worries me because that means likely a visit to LAA for round 1 and back to Boston for round 2. With the current team that the Yankees have, they cannot beat LA or Boston in a series in their building. The Yankees offense is stacked and their pen is doing well, but they don't have enough to out slug other teams if they cant get good reliable pitching. CC is a terrible post season starter as is wang (if he gets straightened out). Burnett is inexperienced but should be capable of a good outing. Joba and Pettitte concern me. Pettitte has done it in the past with great success, but he is not the same pitcher. He's old and he looks it. Joba is young and looks it as well. He nibbles at the plate, can't throw 95 and doesn't have an out pitch. Joba needs to settle and become a reliable 3rd starter for the playoffs or this team has 0 chance when it matters. The yankees will make the playoffs but it is also imperative that they claim the division. As i just said I think 93-95 wins is in the cards, enough for 2nd place, but that means 2 road series before the World Series and it means Angels and Boston. A first place finish means Detroit in round one at home (should be possible to win) and then a series against the Angels/Red Sox in all likelyhood at home. This seems like a much more winable scenario for the Yankees in October. Either way they aren't winning shit until they get the starters straightened out. This doesn't mean get Halladay, but it means maybe making a small time move, or working with what you've got...fast!

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Home Run Derby

While hanging out with some friends last night, I realized I'm not a fan on the Home Run Derby. I think all of my life I convinced myself the Home Run Derby was amazing and found the idea of blasting homers 500 feet pretty marvelous. As I've gotten older I think my love for the game of baseball has increased leaps and bounds (to almost dangerously high levels), and therefore my love for the Home Run Derby has disappeared and might have been a false love in the past. I think most fans love the idea of people getting out there and hitting bombs into the night and baseball fans will always support players with flash and style who hit 40 HRs a yr at 420 feet a pop despite a 230. batting avg. The use of steroids seemed like a no brainer, with fans craving for someone to challenge all time home run records and other fans dying to have some player wallop 20 HRs in a single home run derby round, some over 500 feet. The incentive for players to use steroids is clear, more home runs, more fan appeal, more money, better chance of being known as the best ever, we get that. So now that I'm old enough to really understand baseball and what makes it great, the home run derby ruins that. The home run derby requires players to change their swing completely and do something completely different than a baseball game. Players are hitting "juiced" balls according to Dan Duquette, a member of the Red Sox personnel who said in the 1999 All Star Game the balls were definitely stuffed and easier to hit out and he thinks that hasn't stopped. Players are also hitting balls at 65 mph from 40 feet away. The marvel of a few bombs is intriguing enough for me to turn it on and have it as background, but it isn't baseball and it isn't great.

I would be happy to do away with the whole competition, because I think guys who just hit bombs are overrated and shouldn't be recognized on a big stage as much as they are. But if you are going to have the event (I highly doubt it'll ever cease to exist), then at least change the format a little so it's not a painful site to watch. I spoke to 3 friends who are big baseball enthusiasts and only 1 of them actually watched the whole thing. These are people who would watch the entirety of a pirates v nationals game just because they enjoy the game so much. The competition (if you can call it that), started at 8:30 and the second round did not begin until 10 pm. 8 contestants is far too many, period. You cannot force guys like Brandon Inge, Joe Mauer, and Adrian Gonzalez into the competition. If you made it a 4 person semi final to begin, 2 from each league, and a 2 person final, the competition would last all of 1:20 minutes and would be enjoyable almost the whole way through. Guys who are good home run hitters would likely participate instead of backing out, like Teixeira and Arod. Less people and higher talent means more enjoyable viewing for me. I wasted so much of my time watching Inge go homerless I stopped watching later when Howard and Mauer came up. MLB lost me, David Arkow, a huge baseball fan, from viewing the whole or even half of the competition. Fix it Selig and fix it fast. As you can see from this post and the last post, there is much to be done to fix the game of baseball, although it is a fantastic game.

I compared Selig and MLB to a smooth sailing ship. Selig just needs to maintain the order and take care of the minor problems that occur and the ship will coast forever, just don't shoot cannons through the boat...o wait, too late.

The All Star Game

I have 2 main issues to address with the all star game

1) The first is that I can't really believe that this game means something for the season--especially something as important as home field advantage. I don't believe there should be so much on the line, but if you Bud Selig felt it was a must, I could go with it. But then remove the fans from the voting!! If Josh Hamilton is gonna start and Manny is coming close to making a team, then something is wrong. As great as those players are, they don't deserve it and they shouldn't be representing their league with something important on the line after injuries or suspensions.

2) The other problem I have with the All Star game is that players can't re-enter the game and managers feel obligated to play all players. Ok I don't like the system, but we can't change it right now, we can only adapt accordingly. So I'm Joe maddon and I'm coaching the AL team and I see that tim Wakefield is on my squad. Honestly, (I hate the guy Im a Yankees Fan), but seriously as good a year as he is having, he cannot play in the game. Sentimental old time baseball fans will say something like, "He's been a good pitcher for a long time and his time has finally come and he deserves to be in the game and be in the spotlight for once." Well I agree he is having his best year ever, but since this game means something and I want to win, I want Halladay for 2 innings followed by Beckett for 2 innings followed by Greinke for 2 innings and then I want Papelbon, Nathan, and Rivera. No ifs ands or buts about it. I want to win and no one else deserves to grace the field. For my offense, Mauer should never sit down, period. these are things that won't happen but are automatics if you give 2 shits about the game, and give the current system--you must. As a yankee fan I see the world series as a possibility and given that the dodgers are a scary opponent, I want every advantage I can get. To have 4/7 games at home vs them is HUGE and im not letting some sentimental attachment to tim wakefield blow my chances at a ring.

I also think there should be re-entry. Players like Albert Pujols and Chase Utley will be removed early in the game and it strikes me as odd that in a 1 run game in the 9th inning when Rivera is trying to close this one down for the AL, we are going to see Orlando Hudson? Good player, but not worth staying up till 11pm to watch. I want the exciting "this never happens and these are the best two in the game" matchup, not 2 random players. get it straight MLB! People wonder why the NFL is surpassing the MLB in ratings and in US attention, I can tell ya, Bud Selig. Baseball is a great game, so Selig get off your knees cause your blowing this game for all of us.